SUNDAY WILL BE A MUCH NICER DAY AS WE WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN WE DID ON SATURDAY… TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTA

We will see a lot more sunshine on Sunday than we did on Saturday making it a great day to get out and do some yardwork, go for a long walk or do any type of outdoor activity. Low clouds held tough on Saturday only allowing a few breaks of sunshine later in the day. Temperatures will be warmer on Sunday, but an onshore flow will keep coastal areas on the cool side. Remember, the ocean and bay temperatures are still quite cool. On Monday, a more southerly flow will bring up warmer air ahead of an approaching cold front. High temperatures should exceed 80 degrees in most of the region and it will be quite breezy at times. Any showers and thunderstorms should hold off until the nightime hours. They may linger into Tuesday morning as the cold front moves through Hampton Roads. We clear out for Wednesday and temperatures will cool down to more seasonal levels. Showers are a possibility as we head towards next weekend.

Thanks for reading and have a great day.

AFTER A COOL SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WARM UP ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY… THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART… SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE

The backdoor cold front that moved through Hampton Roads Thursday night and early Friday is going to return as a warm front on Sunday. The cool flow of air off of the ocean on Saturday will keep temperatures below normal… probably in the 50′s in most places. The winds will shift around to a more southerly direction on Sunday which will bring in milder temperatures. Clouds will be around on Saturday but some sunshine is possible every once in a while. On Sunday, a shower is possible, but overall, it should be a nice day with warmer temperatures. On Monday, temperatures really heat up as we may see temperatures soar into the lower 80′s. A cold front is expected to bring a chance of showers and/or thunderstorms late Monday night. On Tuesday, we should clear out with more seasonal temperatures.

You may not have realized it but precipitation is running well below normal (over 3 inches). Although we have been seeing rain every few days, the amounts have not been significant. For example, we only picked up a quarter of an inch of rain last night when thundershowers moved through Hampton Roads.

Thanks for reading and have a great day.

THERE ARE SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO… TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL, BUT NO MAJOR WARM-UPS ARE EXPECTED

The weather pattern is very active and will remain so for another week to ten days. There will be several opportunities for rain during this period. Temperatures will slowly return to near normal. Normal high temperatures for this time of year is in the low 60′s. The rain is slowly moving off the coast as a low pressure system moves away. Another low pressure system will most likely bring another chance of rain by late Thursday. This low will move up the coast and may bring some wet snow and strong winds to the Northeast. The weekend looks okay for now as high pressure builds into the region. Then, wet weather may return by Monday or Tuesday. Thanks for reading and have a great day.

AFTER A DREARY SUNDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ON MONDAY, BUT IT WILL REMAIN CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR… THIS UPCOMING WEEK MAY BRING TWO CHANCES

The weather map looks quite winter-like with Arctic air firmly entrenched over the northern tier of our nation. High pressure continues to occupy Central Canada. Waves of low pressure continue to travel along the frontal boundary to our south bringing periods of light rain and snow/sleet to parts of the Mid-Atlantic States. Snow has been reported in areas to our north and I actually saw a few flakes mixed in with the rain earlier this morning here in Virginia Beach. Any snow accumulations to our north are expected to be minor and predominately on grassy, non-paved surfaces. The wet weather should move away this afternoon but forecasters aren’t expecting much sunshine, if any, today (Sunday) here in Hampton Roads. Although Monday should be dry, forecasters will be watching yet another system riding by to our south along that frontal boundary. Right now, it appears that this system will be far enough south to spare us any precipitation. However, it will probably cause clouds to remain throughout most of Monday, with limited sunshine. I think we’ll see the sun on Tuesday, but it won’t last long. Another low pressure system may bring rain on Wednesday. At the end of the week, yet another system may bring us some more wet weather. Temperatures are expected to slowly recover this week but it will remain below normal for at least the first half of the week. Thanks for reading and have a great day.

CLOUDS DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH RAIN A GOOD POSSIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY… IT WILL NOT FEEL VERY SPRING-LIKE AS TEMPERATURES WIL

Today’s weather map features an expansive high pressure area over Central Canada and a frontal system draped just south of us with waves of low pressure moving along this front. The combination of mostly cloudy to overcast conditions and an unseasonably cool flow of air out of the northeast will make for a dreary day here on Saturday, but right now it doesn’t seem that we will see significant rainfall today. This changes as we head towards Saturday night as a low pressure system develops along this boundary to our south and moves along it. We should see light rain break out overnight and this rain should continue through part of Sunday. Up to our north, snow may mix in and in some areas it may be all snow for a while. Any accumulations of snow should stay confined to grassy areas and other non-paved surfaces. Here in Hampton Roads, snow is not expected but I wouldn’t be surprised if a few wet snowflakes mix in with the rain at times, especially over the peninsula. Temperatures should range from the very chilly upper-thirties to the low forties on Sunday. We should clear out on Monday with temperatures a little milder but still below normal for this time of year. The extended forecast looks fairly active and I will have details on that in my Sunday morning post.

AFTER A COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WE WARM BACK UP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK… A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING BY TO OUR NORTH MAY BRING SOME UNSETTLED

A cool high pressure system is providing nice weather on Sunday, but it will be moving offshore and weakening. Our winds will veer around from the NE today to a more southerly direction on Monday. This will allow warmer air to move into the Hampton Roads region. A warm front will also be moving through, but right now, forecasters aren’t expecting too much rain but some light rain or showers is possible Monday night or Tuesday morning from this system. A cold front will also move through and then we should clear out for a while on Tuesday. Then, the forecast gets a bit tricky as frontal system is expected to stall out somewhere to our south and west. Low pressure is expected to develop and ride along this front on Wednesday and Thursday bringing some rain with it. Areas to the north of the front should expect rain while areas to the south may not see too much. Pinpointing exactly where that front will end up is difficult to say right now but it appears that the best chances of rain will be the further north you are. Another cold high pressure system is expected to move down later in the week behind this low pressure system. So, in summary, there will be plenty of changes in the day to day weather this upcoming week, which is typical for this time of year. Thanks for reading and have a great day.

WARM WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLER WEEKEND AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH… NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND

A warm west-southwest flow of air will make Friday a day that you probably wish you weren’t at work. Down sloping winds are partly the reason why it will be in the upper 70′s today. When winds flow down the slopes of mountains, the air warms. This effect is more pronounced east of the Rocky Mountains. Denver, Colorado is a place where this happens with more frequency and these warm winds can melt snow very rapidly. A backdoor cold front is expected to move through Hampton Roads Friday night switching our winds to the north. This will make Saturday a cooler day. No significant rain is expected with this cold frontal passage. The weekend looks nice for the most part with seasonal temperatures. Looking ahead, rain chances will most likely increase as we get to Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Have a great day and thanks for reading.

AFTER A MILD SUNDAY, COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK… SOME RAIN MAY FOLLOW BY MID-WEEK AND THEN WE SHOULD WARM BACK UP

Saturday was a fantastic day for the middle of March. In response to the mild temperatures and the recent rainfall, the grass is starting to turn green again and some of the trees are budding. My Bradford Pear tree is in full bloom. Yes, spring is only about a week away. A dry cold front will be moving through switching our winds around to the northwest later today (Sunday). Temperatures will once again reach the 60′s but there will be lots of clouds around. Monday will be much cooler with just a slight chance of a light shower or sprinkle. Rain chances will most likely increase as we head towards mid-week. Later in the week, we should warm back up.

Today, March 13th, is the 18th anniversary of the March Super Storm of 1993. That large and powerful storm brought heavy snow accumulations to many areas of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, extremely strong winds to just about the entire eastern part of the nation, including wind induced coastal flooding along the Gulf Coast of Florida and heavy flooding rain to some areas. In my opinion, that was the “Storm of the Century”!

Thanks for reading and have a great day.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE NICE AND WILL ACTUALLY FEEL SPRING-LIKE… SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK

A southwesterly flow will bring in mild air this weekend. It’s really going to be a nice weekend for most outdoor activities. More clouds are expected on Sunday. This past Thursday I picked up 0.70 inches of rain as that very wet frontal system that brought flooding to parts of the Northeast moved through. A weak cold front will be flirting with us beginning late Sunday into early next week as it is expected to stall somewhere close by. The forecast becomes uncertain once we get into Monday as the computer models diverge in their solutions. The models can’t agree whether we will see any rain on Monday so I’ll update that tomorrow. Temperatures will most likely trend cooler next week but later in the week, warmer readings are expected.

Thanks for reading and have a great day!

A VERY WET FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/RAIN TO HAMPTON ROADS… AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON MOND

A frontal system slowly moving eastward towards the East Coast should bring us some rain later today (Sunday). The heaviest rainfall is expected to be to our north and west, but we should still see a decent amount of rain here in Hampton Roads. The southerly flow out ahead of this frontal system is bringing up relatively warm air and lots of moisture. Although Hampton Roads isn’t expected to see major flooding issues (except possibly some urban and street flooding), areas to our north and west may have some flooding problems as heavy rainfall combines with melting snowfall. The winds will be quite strong on Sunday but forecaster don’t expect anything too extreme. The front will move off the coast Sunday night and our winds will shift around to the north. This northerly breeze will make Monday a cooler day but the rain will be gone and the skies should be partly to mostly sunny. We should stay on the cool side for a few days and the next chance of rain probably won’t come until Wednesday night or Thursday. Northeasterly winds on Tuesday will make it cooler near the water. We’re getting to the time of year when the relatively cooler ocean and bay water cause afternoon temperatures to be lower near the coast when the winds are blowing from the still chilly water. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

AFTER A FAIRLY NICE DAY ON SATURDAY, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE WET BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND… DRY AND MORE SEASONAL WE

A high pressure system well of the coast is producing a southeast flow of air off the Atlantic Ocean. This will produce a few clouds today (Saturday), but rain is not expected to move in until Sunday morning. The rain and showers will be the result of a frontal system moving slowly eastward and a low pressure system developing to our southwest. Saturday should turn out quite nice with mild temperatures and the sun will be out at times. Clouds will increase later Saturday and Sunday looks to be quite wet as moisture and lift increases over the region. The NWS is already saying that there is a 100% chance of rain on Sunday! There might be some thunder but nothing severe is expected. Temperatures will again be on the warm side on Sunday as winds will be mostly out of the south. The rain should end by Sunday night and Monday should be fair and seasonable.

This past Monday February 28th, we picked up 0.75 inches of much needed rainfall. We may see similar amounts on Sunday and possibly more in some spots.

Thanks for reading and have a great day!

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES BRINGING HUGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER CONDITIONS… FEBRUARY WILL END VERY SPRING-LIKE WITH TEMPERATURES

Sunday will be a decent day here in Hampton Roads with temperatures slightly above normal and some sun. There will also be a lot of clouds around as moisture levels have increased in various levels of the atmosphere. On Monday, a frontal system will be approaching from the west. Out ahead of this system, southwesterly winds will cause temperatures to soar into the 70′s in most spots. A line of showers/thunderstorms is expected to develop out ahead of the cold front which is expected to move through our region late in the day or at night on Monday. I’m hoping that we receive some rainfall which is needed across parts of the area. Outside of well developed thunderstorms that may develop, heavy amounts of rainfall aren’t expected from this system. On Tuesday, temperatures cool back down to more seasonal levels and we should stay dry for a few days. Thanks for reading and have a great day.

SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER BUT ANOTHER WARM-UP IS ON THE WAY… AFTER A BEAUTIFUL DAY ON SUNDAY, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY DAY SIMILAR

The strong winds that plagued Hampton Roads on Friday are gone, but temperatures will be more winter-like today (Saturday) as a cold high pressure has moved into the region. Winds were very strong on Friday gusting to near 50 MPH in some spots. Rainfall wasn’t that impressive as my neighborhood only picked up a tenth of an inch. The winds were stronger to our north gusting to near 60 MPH in D.C. Winds will veer around from the northeast to the south on Saturday and this will cause temperatures to rise into the 60′s on Sunday with sunny skies. Monday may be very similar to this past Friday as another low pressure system will take a track similar to the storm system that moved to our north on Friday. Winds on Monday will be quite gusty and we’ll see if they will be as strong as they were on Friday. What about rain chances? Well, we expect some showers and even some thunder as the cold front approaches but rainfall amounts probably won’t be substantial for most of us here in Hampton Roads. As with the previous system, the further north you are, the more rain you will probably receive. This is a very typical pattern when there is a La Nina in the North Pacific Ocean. Historically, the Southeast doesn’t receive that much precipitation in late winter and early spring when there is a La Nina. Forecasters are expecting drought conditions to develop in many areas of the southeast as we move into spring. What bothers me is that just when precipiation is needed the most with the growing season set to begin soon, it stops raining which puts stress on the young trees and shrubs. We’ll see if those dire predictions of drought are accurate.

Next week marks the end of meteorological winter which will be very welcome for most folks. This means that the average temperature begins to climb at steady pace until we get to summer.

Thanks for reading and have a great day. I’ll have an update on Sunday.

MAJOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND STRONG WINDS DOMINATE THE WEATHER NEWS HERE IN HAMPTON ROADS

As my headline stated on Sunday, it’s been a roller coaster ride in the temperature department. We were in the 70′s this past Friday. On Sunday we were back in the 40′s and low 50′s. Today (Monday), we may go back into the 70′s and then on Tuesday, we may not make it out of the low 40′s. A backdoor cold front will be moving through tonight dropping temperatures as the winds swing around to the N-NE. Forecasters don’t expect significant precipitation with this front here in Hampton Roads. There may be a shower though in some spots Tuesday morning. Temperature swings like this are fairly typical for this time of year as the clash of the air masses causes large storm systems to develop and move across the nation. From now through early spring, it is typical to see a large difference in temperatures across the nation. The storm track has been to our north so we are basically on the warmer and drier side of these systems. That is partially due to a persistent high pressure ridge over the Southeast. Winds will be a factor for fire fighters today but humidity levels will be a higher than they were on Saturday. so I don’t think conditions will be as bad. (Saturday was a brutal day for fire fighters as there were many brush fires reported). Another system later this week may bring some rain on Friday. We could use the moisture to help alleviate the dry conditions. That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A ROLLER COASTER RIDE THE NEXT FEW DAYS… DESPITE LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS ON SUNDAY, THE FIRE DANGER CONTINUES DUE TO LOW DEW POINT

Saturday was a busy day for many firefighters in Virginia due to brush/forest fires breaking out across the region. Strong winds combined with very low humidity levels/dew points caused ideal conditions for fires to spread quickly. And of course there is plenty of fuel in the form of dried vegetation. With the strong low pressure area moving slowly away to our northeast and high pressure building into the region, winds will slacken off today (Sunday), but the breeze will still be strong enough this morning to maintain another increased fire danger day here in Eastern VA. Temperatures will be much cooler than they were Saturday. But the cool weather won’t last very long. Warm air will be spreading back into our region ahead of another frontal system on Monday. Winds will be gusty again on Monday, but with temperatures near 70, you probably won’t mind that much. A cold front may bring a shower here on Tuesday morning, but forecasters are not predicting much rainfall from this system. We will cool back down towards mid-week and then another frontal system will be approaching later in the week hopefully bringing a better chance of rain.

Winter weather is making its return to the northern states as a snowstorm will be barrelling from the Mid-West into the Northeast. Meanwhile, the high pressure ridge in the Southeast will keep the South mild and dry.

Thanks for reading and have a great day.

SATURDAY WILL BE OUR LAST MILD DAY FOR A WHILE… STRONG WINDS AND VERY LOW DEW POINTS CAUSE RED FLAG WARNINGS TO BE POSTED BY THE NWS

Wasn’t Friday a treat, with temperatures in the 70’s with lots of sunshine? Well, as you know, winter is not over just yet and we will see a return to more seasonal weather on Sunday. A cold front moved through Hampton Roads overnight Friday night and behind it, strong winds will usher in cooler, drier air. These strong winds combined with very low dew points have prompted the NWS to issue Red Flag Warnings for a large part of Virginia and North Carolina for Saturday. Gale Warnings are in effect for our coastal waters. Temperatures will still be mild on Saturday but the colder air will be more evident on Sunday as temperatures will be at or below seasonal norms. A frontal system will be approaching Sunday night and Monday producing a lot of cloudiness but precipitation is not likely until we get to Monday night and Tuesday. Forecasters aren’t expecting a lot of rainfall, but there will be a chance of a shower Tuesday morning. Another frontal system may impact our weather later next week.

WINTER TAKES A BREAK BUT HOW LONG WILL THE MILD WEATHER LAST?… NO MAJOR STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK FOR HAMPTON ROADS

After a very long period of cold and storminess, Old Man Winter is finally taking a break. Temperatures will be mild this week with just one day of cooler and seasonable weather on Tuesday. No significant precipitation is expected this week. As low pressure systems swing by to our north, winds will increase at times, but nothing extreme is expected in the near term. Meteorologists can kick back and enjoy the relative tranquility for while. It’s a well-deserved break for them as they have been nearly continually challenged over the past couple of months. The big question for meteorologists is when will the pattern go back to a more winter-like pattern and to what degree? There’s plenty of winter left but with each passing day, the sun gets a little stronger and the days get a little longer. We all know how volatile late February and March can be so don’t put away your winter gear just yet. I would simply enjoy the mild weather while you can. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

FINALLY, THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST… TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING UPWARDS AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS WEEK

It’s been quite a while since I could say that there are no storms threatening Hampton Roads during the upcoming week. In addition, temperatures will be warmer this week for the most part with maybe one or two cooler days. The snow that fell on Thursday should be gone by Monday as temperatures this weekend will top out in the 50′s and there should be plenty of sunshine. The brutally cold and stormy pattern that has dominated this winter looks like it has finally broken. A low pressure system passing well north of us early next week will pull down some cooler air on Tuesday but a warm up seems likely right after that. Temperatures might even go into the 60′s late in the week. The days are getting longer and the sun is getting stronger so it won’t be long before the grass starts turning green again. Due to the cold temperatures this winter, the grass has gone dormant in most lawns that I’ve seen. It will be nice to see green lawns again. Well, that’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day.

FORECASTERS FACE A CHALLENGING WEEK AS A RATHER POTENT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW TO SOME PARTS OF THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY

I said it before and I’ll say it again… Another week and yes, another potential for a big storm… Forecasters will once again have their hands full this week as there is yet again the potential for a major winter event for some areas of the eastern part of the nation. The same all too familiar questions have to be answered… What will be the exact track of the low pressure center? Will cold air be in place at the onset of the precipitation? How much cold air will rush in behind the storm system? How much moisture will get entrained into the storm? And there are plenty of other questions that will have to be answered that deal with more complex meteorological issues about this system. It is too early to speculate on this system so you will have to monitor your local forecast as we get closer. I just want to add that there is a sort of glitch with some of the computer models that for whatever reason, lose the system when it is 4 or 5 days out. The models did that with the big post Christmas blizzard and they are doing it again with this storm. Once the system reappears on the forecast weather maps, forecasters will have a much better idea of what will happen. Let’s back up to today (Sunday). We’ll have a sunny and seasonable day with temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 40′s. Some clouds roll in on Monday as a complex weak frontal system approaches the Mid-Atlantic States. As it looks now, Hampton Roads will be caught in between the more significant areas of precipitation so forecasters aren’t expecting a lot of rain here locally Monday night. Then, the focus will turn to the potential system that should begin to impact us either Wednesday night or early Thursday. Stay tuned on this one. No matter how this storm evolves, colder weather seems quite likely for Friday and Saturday with some moderation as we go into next week. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

SATURDAY WILL BE A WET DAY WITH RAIN AT TIMES… SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL… THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHE

A weak low pressure system off the N.C. coast will slowly strengthen during the day Saturday bringing a good chance of rain here in Hampton Roads. Temperatures won’t be too chilly due to winds slowly veering around to the south and southwest. The low pulls away on Sunday which will result in a fairly nice day for early February. Temperatures will be seasonal which means that high temperatures will be in the mid to upper forties. Another system is expected to cause some unsettled weather later Monday and Tuesday but right now, it’s not expected to be a significant event. From what I’ve read, models can’t even agree whether we will see any precipitation from this system. Of more concern is a storm system that may impact our region on Thursday. This system could pack a punch so forecasters will be closely monitoring the development of this potential system. Very chilly air is expected to follow that system on Friday. I’ll have more on the potential late week system in my Sunday morning post. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

ANOTHER MAJOR STORM SEEMS LIKELY THIS WEEK, BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER DURING THIS EVENT THAN IN THE PREVIOUS STORMS

A weak cold front moved through overnight and we are now in a relatively seasonal air mass. Temperatures should peak out around 48 which is basically where they should be in late January here in Hampton Roads. All attention is turning to what could be a major storm for parts of the nation this upcoming week. There is a big difference in this storm’s expected track from the previous storms this season that will make a world of difference to the weather here in Hampton Roads and to areas to our north that have received so much snowfall this winter. The storm is expected to track well northwest of our region which means that it will pull in milder air from the south and southeast. The forecast high temperature for Wednesday is 67 degrees! So, we obviously don’t have to worry about frozen precipitation with this system and if the current forecast track holds true, even the big cities in the Northeast may see mostly rain from this storm. (Boston, MA might not be as lucky, however). There could still be changes in the forecast so stay tuned.

Backing up to today (Sunday), we’ll see a mix of clouds and sun. Monday, we should see more cloudiness. The chance of rain ramps up later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Things could get interesting next weekend as there may be another East Coast storm that brings wintry precipitation to areas that have already seen so much snow this season and areas further south. That’s far out in the future so we’ll have to see how things unfold with that potential system. That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

ANOTHER WEEK AND YES, ANOTHER MAJOR STORM IS ON THE WAY… HOWEVER, A GREAT LATE JANUARY WEEKEND WILL GIVE US A CHANCE TO GET OUT AND ENJOY… WILL THE NO

This past week brought heavy rain to Hampton Roads and another crippling snowstorm to parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic States and the Northeast. In my backyard, almost and inch and a half of rain fell from that mid-week storm system. From D.C. through New England, it was snow and there was a lot of it, more than what was expected by most forecasters. New York City received 19 inches and it fell in a very short period of time. I heard reports of snowfall rates were nearly 3 inches per hour, which contributed to lightning and thunder. Many cities up there are well above normal in total snowfall and we have plenty of winter to go. For us here in Hampton Roads, we have a fairly nice weekend to enjoy before the next wet weather system moves our way. Temperatures on Saturday should be around 50 and Sunday will be a little cooler. A weak cold front will pass through the area Saturday night with no significant precipitation expected here locally. I’ll have more details on the storm system that should bring us a decent shot of rain Tuesday and/or Wednesday in my Sunday morning post. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

THE COLD CONTINUES BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COLD WILL LEAVE JUST IN TIME A MAJOR STORM ARRIVES… THIS SHOULD MEAN THAT WE SEE PREDOMINANTLY

Sunday will be another very chilly day here in Hampton Roads despite ample sunshine. Winds shouldn’t be a major factor, however. The low pressure area that skirted the coast o the Carolina’s brought some snow to the Southern Outer Banks late on Saturday. That storm has moved out to sea. Monday should be another dry and chilly day. The next system that is forecast to affect our region is expected to cause an increase in clouds Monday night. A low pressure system is expected to move up the coast spreading moderate to possibly heavy precipitation in our direction later Tuesday into Wednesday. The exact timing of the onset of the precipitation isn’t certain as of yet, but right now, forecasters believe that we will only receive rain from this system due to milder air being drawn in from off of the ocean. The exact track of this system will determine how much precipitation we receive and what form it will be in areas to our west and north. If you are traveling to the north and west over the next few days, make sure you pay attention to the forecast as some parts of the Northeast may see a significant snowstorm. Right now, forecasters believe that some of the major cities of the Northeast will escape the heaviest snow due to a changeover to rain, BUT THAT CAN CHANGE! After this storm goes by, it appears that temperatures will be seasonable for the remainder of the week.

SATURDAY WILL BE FRIGID WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW THIRTIES… A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDA

Saturday will be a frigid day as the arctic air mass that brought actual low temperatures in northern Minnesota down into the minus forties moved into the region overnight. Of course, the air mass has modified but we will still be well below normal. Temperatures probably won’t rise much above the freezing point on Saturday. A low pressure system is expected to develop off the Southeast Coast and this may bring a little light snow to the Outer Banks later today. No snow is expected here locally from this system. The low pressure area will move offshore so Sunday should be dry and chilly. Attention then turns to what could be a major storm system during the mid-week period. It’s a bit too early to nail down all of the details with this system, but models are indicating that we will see mostly a rain event. For the northern Appalachian mountains, a significant snow event could be shaping up. The I-95 corridor of the northeast should see a snow/rain mix possibly turning to all rain there. The track of this low will probably pull in milder air from off of the ocean. I’ll have an update on Sunday.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS THIS WEEKEND… RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT

After a chilly week, temperatures will be more seasonal today (Saturday). Seasonal in mid-January means highs in the upper 40’s and lows around 30. A southwest wind will be transporting in the milder air. A cold front will drop temperatures slightly on Sunday. On Monday, the forecast gets a bit tricky. Computer models diverge on their solutions for Monday. A low pressure system should be heading through the Great Lakes region while another one is expected to be moving along the Southeast Coast. Right now, it appears that most of Monday should remain dry but rain chances will be increasing later in the day. Rain should overspread the area Monday night and continue into Tuesday. Temperatures in Hampton Roads should be warm enough for an all rain event but to our north and west, some sleet can be expected, especially when the precipitation starts. I’ll have an update on Sunday.

FORECASTERS ARE CLOSELY WATCHING THE STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT HAMPTON ROADS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT

Yesterday’s snow squalls were quite impressive. The snow fell heavily for brief periods. The snow bursts were caused by a very cold air aloft causing extreme instability in the atmosphere and literally squeezed out the existing moisture that was in the atmosphere Saturday afternoon. Cold air cannot hold as much water vapor as warm air, so the water vapor precipitates out into snow. This phenomenon is more common up to our north and west. These upper level disturbances were moving around a large polar vortex over New England. Sunday should be sunnier but it will still be a bit breezy. The winds should relax on Monday.

As I stated in my previous post, a major winter storm seems likely for the Mid and North Atlantic States on Tuesday. However, the exact details of where the heaviest snow will be and what areas will see rain mixed in (or possibly all rain) need to be worked out. This storm is really going to be a major forecast challenge as there are so many factors that have to be considered with this system. Here’s what forecasters think is going to happen. A low pressure area is going to develop in the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. This cyclogenesis will be caused by an upper level disturbance moving eastward across the deep south. The low will move northeast towards the Carolina coastline. This low pressure system will be quite complex as upper-level energy may cause another low to develop further inland. That will complicate an already complex situation. This system will spread a wintry mix of precipitation across the Tennessee Valley on Monday. The exact track of this system will determine what type of precipitation Hampton Roads receives. If the low tracks further east, snow will be more likely but if it tracks too far offshore, then dry air could reduce precipitation amounts, especially to our north and west. If the low tracks further west, then warmer air will be drawn into the system causing rain instead of snow. Also, with the other low pressure system forming further inland, it could pull in warmer air aloft changing the snow to rain on Tuesday. (See my Weather Fact on why snow is so hard to predict here in Hampton Roads). The low pressure systems are expected to consolidate off the coast of Long Island and really blast Southern New England with a blizzard or near blizzard conditions. NYC may be under the gun again for heavy wind driven snow, just what they really need.

Please monitor your local media and the National Weather Service (NWS) for updates, advisories and warnings that may be issued for the period Monday night through Tuesday night.

Thanks for reading.

THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ON TUESDAY… DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND INTENSITY STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT… THE

A major winter storm seems likely for the Mid and North Atlantic States on Tuesday. However, the exact details of where the heaviest snow will be and what areas will see rain mixed in (or possibly all rain) need to be worked out. This storm is really going to be a major forecast challenge as there are so many factors that have to be considered with this system. Here’s what forecasters think is going to happen. A low pressure area is going to develop in the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. This cyclogenesis will be caused by an upper level disturbance moving eastward across the deep south. The low will intensify as it moves northeast towards the Carolina coastline. This system will spread a wintry mix of precipitation across the Tennessee Valley. The exact track of this system will determine what type of precipitation Hampton Roads receives. If the low tracks further east, snow will be more likely but if it tracks too far offshore, then dry air could reduce precipitation amounts, especially to our north and west. If the low tracks further west, then warmer air will be drawn into the system causing rain instead of snow. (See my Weather Fact on why snow is so hard to predict here in Hampton Roads).

Let’s back up to the weekend. A large polar vortex to our north will keep us on the chilly side this weekend and a developing low offshore will maintain breezy conditions throughout the weekend. Wind speeds should lessen on Monday. Some parts of Eastern VA and NE NC received a little light snow and rain mix overnight Friday night. No major problems were reported.

I’ll have an update on Sunday. Thanks for reading.

COULD HAMPTON ROADS BE IN FOR ANOTHER MAJOR WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK?… THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A LITTLE SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN SOME AREAS

A very challenging forecast faces meteorologists over the next several days. The first challenge is a weak system that might produce a little snow on Friday night across parts of the area. Right now, forecasters aren’t predicting anything major, just a dusting on the grassy surfaces, roofs, etc. And that is only a possibility right now. Note that parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic states and the Northeastern states may see some snow on Friday as a system swings north of us around a large polar vortex in Eastern Canada. The main event for Hampton Roads may come Monday night into Tuesday as a major winter storm is expected to move from the Southern Plains States eastward to the East Coast. The storm is expected to intensify and move up the coast. (Sound familiar?) As with the previous snowstorm, the models are waffling back and forth on this system with each model run and they are also offering differing outcomes or solutions. Some with less snow but colder and some with a rain/snow mix and warmer. It’s still too early to nail the details down but it does appear that some areas of the Mid-Atlantic States may see a significant snowstorm once again early next week. Norfolk only averages 9 inches of snow a year and we have well exceeded that already. Maybe we are making up for the 5 year snow drought that was broken last January. Stay tuned on this one. I’ll have an update on Saturday.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS ON SUNDAY… CLOUDS DOMINATE ON SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES START OUT MILD… THE WEEK AHEAD WILL FEATURE

A slow moving cold front will move through on Sunday possibly accompanied by some showers or light rain. Mild air that has been flowing northeast ahead of the cold front melted much of the snow. The winds will swing around to the N-NW behind the front which will drop temperatures. No bitter cold is expected early this week but temperatures will fall to more seasonal levels. The overall weather pattern this week seems quiet at least for most of the week. A cold front is expected to pass through the Mid-Atlantic States during the mid-week period, but as it looks right now, significant precipitation is not likely with this frontal passage. As we head towards the weekend, forecasters will be watching for a potential developing low pressure system somewhere near the East Coast. The exact position of where this low develops will determine what area receives precipitation and the precipitation type. Details are very sketchy at best right now. That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST BRINGING MILD AIR AHEAD OF IT… SOME RAIN IS LIKELY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY… TEMPERATURES

First of all, Happy New Year everyone! After the very chilly December, Saturday’s weather will feel almost spring-like. Mild air moving north out ahead of a trough/cold front slowly approaching from the west will help to melt more of the snow. Saturday should be decent with some sunshine and mild temperatures. The front should bring some rain or showers with it late Saturday night and early Sunday morning but current indications are that we won’t see a deluge here in Hampton Roads. This system brought the deadly tornadoes to parts of the Southern Plains States on Saturday, which is quite rare for the last day of December. The system will shear out somewhat so severe weather is not expected here locally. The air behind this system will not be as frigid as we saw in December. Temperatures will probably be near or slightly below normal for the first part of this upcoming week.

December 2010 ranked the 4th coldest for ORF and was ranked the 2nd snowiest since records were kept. We are in a La Nina phase in the Pacific, which means that the waters in the Eastern North Pacific are running cooler than normal. This usually means drier than normal weather for Southern California. Well, that has not been the case over the past several weeks as that part of the country has been hammered by major storms bring very heavy rain and snow to the higher elevations. That’s what amazes me about the weather. It’s so hard to understand and predict.

Forecasters are hinting of another possibility of a winter storm next weekend, but it is much too early for any specific details. I’ll have an update on Sunday. Thanks for reading.